By William Edwards – CEO, Edwards Global Services, Inc.

 

Franchising has long been a beacon of economic opportunity, cultural exchange, and
business scalability. From California’s strip malls to the bustling streets of Bangkok and
the elegant boulevards of Paris, franchises have woven themselves into the global
economic fabric. Yet, as we look ahead in 2025, an uneasy truth emerges: the global
landscape for franchise expansion is increasingly shaped—and in many cases,
obstructed—by tariffs, political upheaval, and unpredictable regulation.

For franchise executives, investors, and advisors, navigating this uncertain terrain
demands more than resilience—it requires adaptability, foresight, and a robust
understanding of macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics.

The Trade War Hangover: Tariffs That Won’t Go Away

Over the last decade, the once-clear lines of free trade have been increasingly blurred.
The U.S.-China trade war, which ignited in 2018, brought tariffs back into vogue. While
much of the initial fervor has subsided, the lingering impact is real. Tariffs now touch not
only manufacturing inputs, but also key elements of franchise infrastructure—such as
equipment, signage, and even ingredients.

For example, a U.S. food franchise launching in Southeast Asia may find that a grill unit
manufactured in the U.S. now faces a 25% import duty in Vietnam. Meanwhile, supply
chain components like packaging materials from China might be hit by double-digit tariffs
in their destination markets.

The result? Compressed margins, uncertain pricing structures, and delayed launches.

These tariffs add an unexpected layer of complexity. Franchisees in emerging markets,
already contending with high real estate and labor costs, now must also absorb steep
import fees. For franchisors, the choices are difficult: pass the cost along, seek local
suppliers with inconsistent quality, or reduce expansion ambitions altogether.

Political Shocks: From Nationalism to Sanctions

Beyond tariffs, political instability is redefining how—and where—franchises expand.
Protectionism, populism, and nationalism are not just buzzwords. They’re increasingly
becoming formal policy.

In India, for instance, an “Atmanirbhar Bharat” (self-reliant India) policy favors domestic
brands and pressures foreign companies to localize extensively or risk marginalization.
Meanwhile, in Turkey, currency instability paired with interventionist economic policies
makes cost forecasting and repatriation of profits treacherous for foreign franchisors.

Then there are the sanction regimes. U.S. franchises have had to navigate ever-changing
rules about which countries are permissible for trade and licensing. Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine led to the departure of several major franchise brands, but not without significant
sunk costs and disrupted operations. Iran remains a market of 88 million people with a
growing consumer base, yet impenetrable for most Western franchisors due to U.S.
sanctions.

Political disruptions don’t have to be global to be harmful. Local elections in Indonesia,
regulatory overhauls in Nigeria, or populist rhetoric in Mexico can shift the investment
climate overnight.

Local Regulations: A Maze of Compliance

Even in relatively stable markets, regulatory uncertainty is on the rise. New disclosure
laws, franchising codes, and restrictions on foreign ownership are cropping up from Brazil
to the Philippines.

The European Union, often seen as a predictable and mature market, is moving toward
stricter data privacy regulations that affect customer databases—an essential asset for
most retail and food franchises. At the same time, labor reforms across Europe may
impact the staffing models of franchise outlets, particularly in hospitality and QSR sectors.

In Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, a franchise must now navigate
“Saudization” and “Emiratization” policies—government-mandated employment quotas
for local nationals. While these initiatives are understandable in their national context,
they pose operational and recruitment challenges that global franchisors must anticipate.

China, a once-hopeful destination for many franchisors, has seen an uptick in regulatory
scrutiny and mandatory technology disclosures. The previously rapid growth model—
“open fast, grow faster”—has been replaced by cautious vetting, long negotiations, and
closer oversight of foreign operators.

The Currency Conundrum: Exchange Rate Volatility

As if tariffs and political risk weren’t enough, exchange rate volatility now plays a leading
role in the global franchising playbook. The strength of the U.S. dollar, while good for
American tourists, can be a double-edged sword for U.S.-based franchisors.

For franchisees in Argentina, Nigeria, or even Japan, a strong dollar inflates the cost of
royalties, initial franchise fees, and imported goods. In many markets, currency
depreciation has become so severe that franchisors have had to offer temporary
discounts or restructure payments in local currencies—exposing themselves to
conversion risks.

This volatility affects deal-making. In the past, large area development agreements were
confidently signed with 10-year projections. Today, more deals are structured with
performance-based milestones, royalty holidays, or caps on dollar-denominated
payments to cushion against exchange swings.

Emerging Bright Spots: Where Opportunity Still Shines

Despite these headwinds, opportunity still abounds—especially for franchisors willing to
adapt.

Southeast Asia, with its young populations and rising middle class, remains a strong
candidate for consumer-facing brands. Countries like Vietnam and the Philippines offer
franchise-friendly laws and a hunger for Western concepts.

Gulf countries are investing heavily in entertainment, tourism, and lifestyle. Dubai, Abu
Dhabi, and Riyadh are actively courting foreign brands as part of economic diversification
efforts. While regulations must be respected, the reward potential is significant for those
who understand the cultural nuances.

Eastern Europe is seeing rapid urbanization and consumer sophistication. Despite
proximity to geopolitical hotspots, markets like Poland, Romania, and the Baltics are
proving surprisingly resilient.

Finally, Latin America—particularly Colombia, Peru, and Chile—is emerging as a steady
region for food, retail, and wellness franchises. Regulatory reform and consumer demand
make these countries attractive for calculated expansion.

Strategies for Navigating the New Normal

To succeed in this environment, franchisors must become geopolitical strategists as much
as brand evangelists. The following strategies can help:

1. Regionalize Supply Chains

Shift away from single-source global supply chains. Consider regional hubs in Latin
America, Southeast Asia, or Eastern Europe to reduce tariff exposure and shipping costs.

2. Embed Flexibility in Franchise Agreements

Build in currency fluctuation clauses, milestone-based development schedules, and local
procurement options. These provisions create breathing room during uncertain times.

3. Conduct Enhanced Political and Risk Due Diligence

Use real-time political risk assessments, local legal audits, and currency modeling before
entering new markets. Don’t rely solely on past performance.

4. Double Down on Cultural Adaptation

Consumers may be wary of foreign brands during waves of nationalism. Localizing
menus, aesthetics, and even brand narratives can help overcome resistance.

5. Engage with Local Partners and Governments

Strong local partners can buffer political shocks. Participating in local business
associations and chambers of commerce can also provide advance notice of regulatory
changes.

Conclusion: A Cautious but Hopeful Path Forward

The global franchising environment in 2025 is not for the faint of heart. The rise in tariffs,
political unpredictability, regulatory barriers, and currency risk make international
expansion more complex than ever before.

Yet complexity does not equal impossibility.

Franchise brands that invest in adaptability, local insight, and proactive planning are
finding ways to thrive—even in turbulent environments. The road ahead may be
uncertain, but for those who embrace the challenge, it’s also filled with possibility.

As history has shown, franchising often mirrors the broader world economy. When times
are volatile, resilient and nimble brands become industry leaders. Now is the time to be
bold, smart, and globally aware.

William (Bill) Edwards is CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc., and has helped more
than 40 franchise brands expand into over 30 countries. He is a frequent speaker and
contributor on international franchise strategy and publishes the biweekly Geowizard
newsletter on global business trends (Geowizard.biz). Since 2001, Bill has quarterly
published the GlobalVue™ country ranking chart.
(https://edwardsglobal.com/globalvue/).

To determine how to make the most of today’s global business world for your franchise,
contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 375 1896